Hurricane Rita to become "MAJOR STORM"

Aceasta este scara uraganelor:

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.


Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.


Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.


Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.


Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 888 mb.

Rita va ajunge in Golful Mexic unde apele calde va transforma furtuna intr-un uragan de nivel 4 sau 5 si se presupune ca va lovii Texasul. Katrina a fost in momentul "landfall-ului" categoria 4.

Edited by SoSlow, 20 September 2005 - 16:36.

Conform Centrului National pentru Uragane al SUA si a altor 6 previziuni facute de alte servicii meteorologice private Uraganul Rita urmeaza sa loveasca TEXAS, se presupune ca in zonele cu o industrie petroliera dezvoltata si unde se afla cele mai multe rafinarii. La ora actuala puterea de rafinare a SUA e impaired cu 10 - 15% 25% din titeiul brut vine din Golf care a fost deja afectat grav anul aceasta de Katrina (daca va amintiti Oil Rig-urile care pluteau in deriva). Se anticipeaza de asemenea ca Rita va devenii un Uragan de gradul 4 sau 5 (Katrina a fost de 4 la momentul impactului). Daca e sa facem o previziune sumbra si sa presupunem ca Rita loveste din plin Texas-ul (sa nu uitam ca Texasul e a 7-a economie a lumii, luata separat de cea a SUA, atat Texasul si California sunt economii intre primele 10 ale lumii) putem sa ne asteptam la o recesiune mondiala, pretul petrolului sa explodeze (nu in sensul ca urca cu 2 - 3$ ci in sensul ca urca cu 30$ intr-o zi), comertul international sa se prabuseasca, economia SUA sa intre intr-o recesiune nemaivazuta din 1929. Daca previziunile sumbre se adeveresc in doua saptamani lumea va fi alta, dolarul va avea probabil 1/2 din valoarea de azi, ne vom afla intr-o criza energetica fara precedent, pretul aurului va creste de 10 ori in cateva zile, monedele se vor devaloriza galopant, consumul se va prabusii...life...will change drastically. Vom asista la falimentul in lant al firmelor de asigurari care au oricum de acoperit polite de peste 70 miliarde dolari (estimari Lloyds of London) alaturi de pagube de peste 200 miliarde de dolari), politele nu vor mai fi probabil onorate, sute de mii de oameni vor ramane fara adapost, combustibilul va devenii o raritate in SUA. Odata cu prabusirea economiei americane toata economia mondiala se va prabusii precum un castel de carti. Ce tari vor fi cel mai putin afectate? Cele independente energetic (orientul mijlociu, Rusia, Venezuela, Algeria etc.) se vor autosustine vor pierde insa veniturile din comercializarea titeiului, tarile din lumea a 3-a nu vor simtii impactul pentru ca au economiile subdezvoltate. Economia Chinei va intra in cadere libera, va aparea o severa criza alimentara, revolte. In SUA va fi anarhie retragerea trupelor din Irak va duce la un razboi generalizat in Orientul Mijlociu. Exista posibilitatea ca echilibrul fragil dintre India si Pakistan sa dispara, un razboi nucleara intre cele doua tari sa se petreaca, sute de milioane de oameni ar murii, avand in vedere cat de slabita va fi SUA Korea de Nord va ataca sudul, Rusia va incerca sa recupereze teritorii pierdute dupa razboiul rece...etc etc...sa speram ca acesta e doar un scenariu SF.

Edited by SoSlow, 20 September 2005 - 23:11.

SoSlow, on Sep 21 2005, 00:08, said:

"...si marmota invelea ciocolata in staniol ..."

SF frate, SF!

E doar un scenariu I`m allowed ain`t I? Uraganele depind de apa, de acolo isi iau energia, cut cat apa e mai calda cu atat Uraganul e mai puternic. O imagine a temperaturii apei din Golful Mexic de la momentul Uraganului Katrina, de retinut ca intre timp apa s-a mai incalzit. Katrina a avut rafale de vant de 315 km/h la momentul de intensitate maxima (imaginati-va o tornada F5 de la New York la Cleveland). De asemenea uitati-va ce zine CNN:

(CNN) -- Forecasters could run out of names for tropical storms and hurricanes before the season ends November 30.

The Atlantic basin has seen 17 named storms since the season began June 1, and only four are left on the list.

What's a meteorologist to do if the names run out? Go Greek.

Should the Atlantic see more than 21 named storms "additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and so on," according to the National Hurricane Center Web site.

Va imaginati ce bine se vor simtii americanii cand urmatorul Uragan se va numi...generic "I`m the Alpha and the Omega"

Edited by SoSlow, 20 September 2005 - 23:33.

SoSlow, on Sep 20 2005, 23:20, said:

Deocamdata nu se stie exacta zona/intensitatea unde/cu care va lovi Rita. Mass media americana este deja in fierbere, "mandatory evacuation" a inceput in unele orase din Texas, exact cum s-a intamplat in cazul Katrinei.

Daca si acest uragan va fi la fel de distrugator ca si Katrina cred ca putem deja sa ne facem griji pentru ce va urma in viitorul apropia. Si da, o serie de astfel de uragane poate creea mari probleme in SUA si mai departe poate declansa o reactie in lant la nivel mondial (e deajuns sa se destabilizeze pretul petrolului).

Edited by xndoe, 20 September 2005 - 23:35.

si dupa ce se intimpla toate nenorocirile alea, apar citeva zeci de nave spatiale imense deasupra tuturor tarilor importante (romania nu) si incep sa stropseasca cu fazerele de pe orbita, insa america fiind disabled, un tinar programator de la softwin, expert in antivirusi, dar totodata si in virusi, impreuna ca un capitan comandor al escadrilei de avioane subsolice bacau reusesc, utilizind o nava spatiala descoperita de ana pauker in 50 in grotele secrete masonice din muntii bucegi (care comunica cu sfinxu, piramidele si statuia lu becali din berceni), sa strapunga scutul defensiv al navei muma aflata la jumatate din distanta dintre luna si pamint impartita la pi si sa bage in reteaua lor pe platforma windows 2003 fara update-uri la zi un virus romanesc malefic 100% care va provoca o implozie cuantica ce va da timpu inapoi si vom scapa de uragan prin eliminarea petrolului si folosirea bicicletelor cu hidrogen.

Economia SUA e cea mai puternica din lume, totul depinde de economia SUA (exporturile chinei, pretul petrolului, comertul cu armament, toate activitatile), asa ca daca SUA intra in recesiune lumea intra in recesiune, asta e o chestie clara. Rita este acum a level 2 Hurricane, in 5 ore si-a triplat forta.

Deja mi-am luat bilet de avion de intoarcere in Romania, dar nefiind sigura ca apuc sa zbor inainte de criza petrolului cand nu va mai fi benzina nici pentru avioane si nici pentru vapoare, am vorbit cu niste tipi care au caiac-canoe si mi-au promis ca ma duc ei cu barca intr-o zi de post. Nu stiu inca exact daca voi acosta la Tulcea sau la Mangalia sau in Insula Serpilor (daca nu e inca proprietate privata).

N-am avut timp sa investesc in aur, dar promit sa ajung in tara cu cateva canistre de benzina Premium de 93. Ma asteapta cineva sa facem un troc?

BiR

P.S. chiar acum am vorbit cu meteorologii, au fost de acord ca daca vor mai apuca sa dea un nume la urmatorul uragan, sa-i spuna Bitchy.

P.P.S. si nu mai repetati la nesfarsit expresia aia cu marmota si cu ciucalata... dati dovada de lipsa de imaginatie

2 of the major US Airlines (Delta & Northwest) have filled for bankrupcy protection...so go figure. Poate chiar cu barca o sa te intorci

Braking News: Hurricane Rita now a category 4 expected to strenghten.

da dar mai mentioneaza ca companiile alea au dat faliment si datorita evenimentelor din 9/11. Plus razboiul din irak, care a marit pretul petrolului, ceea ce a insemnat condamnarea acestor companii

Tocmai ca nu are legatura cu 9/11 read:

Air Business Bankrupt: Northwest, Delta Enter Ch. 11, Fueling M&A Speculation

By David Jonas

SEPTEMBER 19, 2005 -- Nearly simultaneous bankruptcy filings last week by Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines marked a watershed moment for a chronically dysfunctional industry. Despite travel demand nearing peak levels of 2000, more than 40 percent of domestic industry capacity now is operated by insolvent companies. Seen as likely by many sources since Sept. 11, 2001, a shakeout in the commercial aviation sector appears underway.

Further along the restructuring spectrum, United Airlines this month finally filed a plan of reorganization and said it sees daylight after nearly three years of bankruptcy proceedings. US Airways similarly is planning to emerge from court protection, having all but wrapped up its merger with America West Airlines.

As those situations showed signs of progress—and provided glimpses into the industry's future—conditions at Delta and Northwest deteriorated, due in no small part to crippling jet fuel costs. Though both carriers for years have supported increasingly uncompetitive legacy cost structures, additional fuel price pressures in the wake of Hurricane Katrina was seen as the tipping point (BTN, Sept. 5). Changes to bankruptcy laws set to take effect Oct. 17 also weighed heavily.

In the immediate term, both carriers committed to maintaining uninterrupted operations—including flight schedules, ticketing policies and frequent flyer programs—and corporate clients for now won't be significantly impacted. "Corporate customers are pretty numb to any announcements like this," said Dee Runyan, executive vice president at WorldTravel BTI.

Moving forward, however, many changes are expected within both carriers' networks, including the potential for a merger with one another.

Citing excess capacity, Northwest president and CEO Doug Steenland last week said, "it is reasonable to expect that consolidation could take place," but a merger involving Northwest had not been forwarded as part of the bankruptcy filing. When pressed further, Steenland said, "we do not comment or speculate" on potential transactions.

The fact that both cases were filed within minutes in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York was "completely coincidental," Steenland added. "It was not orchestrated." Even so, analysts suspected a merger was in the works. "We would not be surprised," said Helane Becker, analyst with The Benchmark Co. "In the past, these two airlines have talked, and they have very little route overlap."

Should consolidation take hold, it could "benefit pricing and capacity dynamics, though applying longer-term pressure on American and Continental," according to J.P. Morgan Securities analyst Jamie Baker.

Squared off against a combined Delta-Northwest entity, UAL and its stakeholders also could reassess United's competitive positioning. United contemplated such a scenario in a recent filing to the U.S. Department of Transportation, opposing SkyTeam alliance antitrust immunity (see story).

"Look at the synergies that US Airways and America West will start to get with their merger," said Runyan. "The others are looking toward that. Certainly they have been discussing it for years, but now, in some cases, it is probably more imminent."

One industry insider said the idea of a Delta-Northwest merger at the beginning of the decade would have been "impossible," owing to conflicting cultures. "Now, a lot of the people that made the Delta culture what it was are no longer there."

Before any potential consolidation, both carriers are expected to shrink, deploy regional jets on more routes and emphasize international networks.

"They will take a hard look at becoming truly low-cost, domestically," Runyan said. "Next year, these big carriers will be analyzing their routes to see what is viable, and tossing overboard those that aren't."

Such decisions undoubtedly would impact preferred corporate agreements covering affected routes, though longer-term ramifications are unclear. Sources suggested international purchasing strategies would be more tied to global airline alliances, especially if the U.S. government allows investment in U.S. carriers by foreign partners.

Meanwhile, in Delta's case, Judge Prudence Beatty ordered the airline to continue normal operations ahead of a first-day motion underway at press time.

The company said it has arranged a debtor-in-possession financing package backed by GE Commercial Finance and Morgan Stanley, with additional funding from American Express.

Delta also told customers that it would "utilize the Chapter 11 process as long as necessary to implement a successful plan of reorganization," a strategy not available to companies filing for bankruptcy after new rules take affect in October (BTN, Aug. 16).

"Delta's financial problems are severe, but by no means insurmountable,'' said CEO Gerald Grinstein.

The airline this year already eliminated its Dallas/Fort Worth hub and announced a 26 percent reduction at its Cincinnati hub. Further retreat is likely. "We expect little reduction by Delta in its overseas markets, whereas domestic capacity is expected to decline by a healthy 17 percent," said J.P. Morgan's Baker. He also suggested that Song operations "stick around" because "Song is pretty spiffy and customers like it, something that one doesn't hear—or, in fairness, hears far less often—regarding Big Delta."

Unlike Delta, Northwest intends to "expeditiously" complete the restructuring. "We certainly would not expect the process to come anywhere near the three-year process that has occurred at United," Steenland said.

Also unlike Delta, Northwest did not line up DIP financing ahead of its bankruptcy declaration. Steenland said the carrier believes it has sufficient cash to handle the restructuring, but also noted that "we are no longer an asset-rich company."

Meanwhile, Northwest has not yet specified capacity reductions beyond a previously announced suspension of New York JFK-Tokyo Narita service, which will eliminate 2 percent of its systemwide capacity.

"We clearly anticipate returning aircraft to our lessors and operating a somewhat smaller airline," Steenland said. "In the weeks ahead, that will be an element of our restructuring that will get a particular focus." He did not provide any guidance beyond saying, "if anything, frequencies might be somewhat less."

Steenland also stressed that an ongoing strike by the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association did not prompt the filing nor does it complicate it, as the company and the union currently have no collective bargaining agreement in place. Northwest continues to use replacement workers.

Delta and Northwest also are pursuing federal pension relief. "Another first step could be some type of subsidy," predicted one travel management source. "Assistance could come in the areas of taxation and fees levied by federal, state and local government."

Meanwhile, Baker named "AirTran as the greatest beneficiary" of a Delta decline, particularly in Florida and on other hotly contested routes.

AirTran also could gain from an Independence Air shutdown. The Dulles, Va.-based low-fare carrier is expected to run out of cash soon and either seek bankruptcy protection or liquidate. The carrier already has scaled back transcontinental operations.

United Airlines also would benefit should Independence Air continue to reduce Dulles services. Such a development could ease UAL's emergence from bankruptcy protection, now set for Feb. 1.

When it exits court, the airline will have a leaner cost structure, revised agreements with United Express carriers, a revamped corporate sales organization and enhanced premium products. Financial projections filed in bankruptcy court show 2007 net income of $510 million, with results improving each year through 2010, when the company expects to net nearly $1 billion.

"We are now competitive with leading network carriers," said chairman and CEO Glenn Tilton.

Some industry observers, however, did not agree with such optimistic assessments. "The plan is not so much a projection of how the future will unfold as a prayer for everything to go right for the next four years," according to Roach and Sbarra, a San Francisco area airline consultancy. "Notably, the plan purports to evaluate various scenarios—such as future fuel and passenger ticket prices—and chooses the most optimistic projection for each as a 'conservative' basis on which to build its recovery plan."

Roach and Sbarra said UAL has "no provision for replacement, much less expansion, of United's aging fleet" and questioned how load factors would increase annually from current historically high levels. They also said UAL would face fiercer competition in international markets than the plan contemplates.

Given the volatility of the domestic market, however, United is relying on higher-yielding international routes and deeper ties with Star Alliance partners, including development of new technology platform (see story), joint distribution strategies and expanded codesharing.

The airline plans to field "a stable fleet of 453 mainline aircraft" and 300 regional jets and turboprops owned by United Express carriers. Combined operations would generate slightly more available seat miles in 2006, and remain flat through 2010. Fuel costs are projected to decline through 2009; $150 million per year is earmarked for fuel hedges, starting in 2007, "to lock in as much of its fuel needs at $50 per barrel as possible."

The bankruptcy court scheduled a hearing for Oct. 11 to assess the adequacy of UAL's disclosure statement. Should the court approve, the company then would solicit votes for confirmation of the reorganization plan. Approval from UAL's creditors committee, however, is by no a means a slam dunk, especially in light of last week's developments.

"The final chapter on the UAL story certainly has yet to be written," said one insider.

For its part, US Airways last week took more steps toward its next incarnation when its creditors and America West Airlines shareholders voted to approve the merger of the two carriers. A bankruptcy court hearing on US Airways' reorganization plan was underway at press time last week. Both carriers still expect to cement the merger by the end of this month.

Edited by SoSlow, 21 September 2005 - 15:55.

Pentru cultura generala a unora: si lantul de supermarketuri K-Mart "filled for bankruptcy" acum vreo 2..3 ani... si azi este inca bine mersi pe market.
De intampla frecvent ca o companie aeriana sa faca treaba asta, ulterior guvernul o scoate si uite asa viata continua cu urcusuri su coborasuri...

Bitch_in_Red, on Sep 21 2005, 17:08, said:

Pentru cultura generala a altora, a 'file for bankruptcy' in US (a intra in procedura de faliment) inseamna sa ceri protectie fata de creditorii companiei pentru a permite implementarea unui plan de administrare a afacerii care sa scoata compania din incapacitatea de plata si a evita dizolvarea sa.

Planul poate fi de succes sau nu. Atunci cand nu e de succes, compania se dizolva. Exista si (multe) cazuri de Chapter 11 care au dus la dizolvare.

Da, K-Mart-ul a supravietuit, insa numai 'bine mersi' nu e...

Sa nu se inteleaga cumva ca vine guvernul US si salveaza toate companiile falimentare. Numai pe cele care au importanta strategica.

Vorbeam cu cineva din Austin ieri si spunea ca se asteapta si ei sa vina Rita. Ironia soartei: tipul spunea ca o mare parte din refugiatii de la New Orleans sunt acum in Houston.

Mosotti, on Sep 20 2005, 23:44, said:

OK, nu putem discuta serios in legatura cu acest subiect. Esti cam Off Topic domnu' moderator. Adevarul e ca trebuie sa te "loveasca" ca sa-i simti puterea si sa-l iei in serios. Pana una alta hai s-o tinem la "misto" ca doar ne pricepem.

SoSlow, on Sep 21 2005, 15:48, said:

La fel ca si Katrina. In noaptea de vineri urmeaza sa atinga uscatul si sa-i loveasca (again). Posibil totusi sa nu depaseasca categoria 4 ...desi nu mai conteaza!

xndoe, on Sep 21 2005, 18:25, said:

alo, domnu user, alea sint aberatiile altui domn user, comenteaza-le tu serios pina nu mai poti