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China vs US

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85 replies to this topic

#19
dannielghi

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 flaviand, on Mar 12 2009, 08:34, said:

O piata de desfacere, ce-i drept din ce in ce mai anemica. Dar e buna si aia pana reuseste China sa-si impulsioneze consumul intern

eu am fost in china; ei nu sunt invatati sa fie consumatori; intr-un singur loc am vazut carucioare de magazin asa mari ca la noi, si anume la un supermarket metro; in rest, toate carucioarele lor la supermarketuri sunt maxim 35% din dimeniunea unui carucior normal la noi. chinezii sunt invatati ca atunci cand au bani sa-i puna deoparte in banca; in china intra valuta, si acolo ramane; china produce (intr-adevar cu criza asta produc mult mai putin, dar produc, nu consuma ce produc altii).de aceea vedem in bancile chineze depozite lichide imense.
ca idee: stiti cat costa o sticla de 0.9 l de ulei de floarea soarelui la ei? 20 rmb (asta in iarna cand am fost eu, inseamna in bani romanesti cam 10 ron; credeti ca n-ar putea importa ulei?); in china produsele de import au preturi foarte mari; chinezii consuma ce produc ei, si asta este bine;
astea sunt argumentele pe care ma bazez referitor la china.

#20
flaviand

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China tace si face... de aceea nu auzi prea multe despre ei :)

In ce priveste sprijinul dolarului am explicat mai sus de ce nu sunt nici ei interesati de o devalorizare a acestuia inainte sa-si puna lucrurile la punct. Deocamdata prefera sa-si foloseasca stocul de dolari pentru a face rezerve de aur, combustibili, materii prime sau pentru a cumpara la pret de nimic industrii si fabrici intregi.

Diferenta e ca dolarii aia sunt bani munciti de chinezi, nu scosi la imprimanta asa cum au facut-o pur si simplu americanii. De aceea China incearca sa profite cat mai poate de pe urma lor, inainte sa devina hartie igienica. Stai linistit ca si ei si americanii sunt tot mai constienti ca asta urmeaza sa se intample, dar deocamdata fiecare isi joaca in continuare rolul incercand sa mai traga de timp fiecare in interesul propriu :)

#21
don_dannielo

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 nmg, on Mar 12 2009, 09:27, said:

Mai mult din cauza asta asta intreb ce primesc la schimb pentru sprijinul dolarului. Nu cumva china actioneaza prin intermediul altora ?  Recunosc, e o idee cel putin ridicola dar totusi ...
Nu sprijina nimic. Se sprijina pe ei, si ne-prea-avand in ce sa se propteasca se proptesc in cea mai mare economie capitalista, US.

Daca ar fi cum zice flaviand, ar re-investi cashul ala in propria economie bazata, nu cumparand bucati din America, ca si fie si ei trasi la mal de primul supravietuitor.

Ce uita flaviand e ca n-ai cum sa impulsionezi consumul in comunism. Vrei sa dea oamenii de bine si sa se rascoale?

Edited by don_dannielo, 12 March 2009 - 11:32.


#22
nmg

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 don_dannielo, on Mar 12 2009, 11:21, said:

Nu sprijina nimic. Se sprijina pe ei, si ne-prea-avand in ce sa se propteasca se proptesc in cea mai mare economie capitalista, US.

Evident ca este si in interesul lor pentru ca sumele de care dispun sunt mari si n-ar dori sa le piarda. De fapt, aici este veriga slaba, sumele sunt imense ca sa renunti la ele usor. Am vazut ca au facut ceva cumparaturi prin europa dar sumele vehiculate sunt mici in comparatie cu rezervele de care dispun.

Dar tot din acest punct de vedere este evident ca asiaticii dispun de un avantaj important. Pana la urma, cea mai puternica arma ramane banul.

De asta intreb, care sunt interesele chinei ? Eu inca n-am reusit sa-mi fac o idee.

Edited by nmg, 12 March 2009 - 11:38.


#23
flaviand

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Quote

Daca ar fi cum zice flaviand, ar re-investi cashul ala in propria economie bazata, nu cumparand bucati din America, ca si fie si ei trasi la mal de primul supravietuitor.

Aia si fac. Pe langa aur, petrol si alte resurse chinezii investesc in proprie economie:

China Plays a Better Long Term Hand


Quote

Whereas the American package was geared to consumers, the Chinese package is geared to productive infrastructure projects that will add to the long term competitiveness of its economy. In China, real wages will filter down to consumers in the form of real wealth, as China's economy gears itself up to become an increasingly effective challenger to American superpower status.

Dar oricum au atata cash incat isi permit sa mai cumpere si bucati din america sau din europa, decat sa-l dea pe garla cand n-o sa mai valoreze nimic.

#24
flaviand

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Ca tot vorbeam de modul in care Chinezii isi stimuleaza economia si consumul intern:

China February Auto Sales Rise 25% After Tax Cuts

Quote

Sales of passenger cars, buses and trucks climbed to 827,600, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said today in Beijing. The tally in the first two months rose 2.7 percent to 1.56 million, compared with a 39 percent decline to 1.35 million in the U.S.

    China has halved retail taxes on small cars and drawn up plans to give out vehicle subsidies in rural areas to revive demand after auto sales rose at the slowest pace in a decade last year. Combined with the country's wider 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus package, the policies have caused General Motors Corp. to roughly double its forecast for China's nationwide auto market growth this year.

By contrast, GM is shuttering plants in the U.S. and seeking a government bailout on tumbling demand. GM's domestic sales collapsed 51 percent in the first two months as the industrywide sales rate dropped to the lowest level since 1981 amid the recession.

Nu mai ramane acum decat ca Chinezii sa cumpere si restul de fabrici GM cand or da baietii faliment. Oricum planuiau asta de ceva vreme:

Chinese Automakers may buy GM and Chrysler

Quote

This newspaper cites a senior official of China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the state regulator of China's auto industry, who dropped the hint that "the auto manufacturing giants in China, such as Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, have the capability and intention to buy some assets of the two crisis-plagued American automakers." These hints are very often followed with quick action in the Middle Kingdom. The hints were dropped just a few days after the same Chinese government gave its auto makers the go-ahead to invest abroad.

Asa ca deocamdata China a depasit US la inca un capitol. In luna ianuarie au ajuns pe primul loc la vanzari auto si asta fara discounturile din februarie sau martie de care vorbeam in primul articol citat.

China January Car Sales Surpass US For The First Time Ever

Quote

General Motors monthly sales of cars and light trucks fell by 49 per cent last month, Chrysler's by 55 per cent and Ford Motor's by 40 per cent, including vehicles made by Volvo, its Swedish premium brand.

"This is the first time in history that China has surpassed the US," said Michael DiGiovanni, GM?s head of global sales and industry analysis.

Edited by flaviand, 13 March 2009 - 11:55.


#25
dracon

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 flaviand, on Mar 12 2009, 09:48, said:

Diferenta e ca dolarii aia sunt bani munciti de chinezi, nu scosi la imprimanta asa cum au facut-o pur si simplu americanii. De aceea China incearca sa profite cat mai poate de pe urma lor, inainte sa devina hartie igienica.
Good point!  :coolspeak:
[ http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/attachments/month_0809/US%20dollar-toliet-paper_2GFBTOUoWJTd.jpg - Pentru incarcare in pagina (embed) Click aici ]

#26
flaviand

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EXCLUSIVE: China stocks up on bargain oil

Quote

In February, China secured oil supply deals totaling $41 billion with Russia, Brazil and Venezuela.

Among the most lucrative: an agreement reached with Russia, in which China will lend $25 billion to Russian oil giant Rosneft and oil pipeline company Transneft. In return, according to Russian news reports, China will receive 300,000 barrels of crude a day for the next 20 years at a rate of about $20 a barrel less than half the current price of $45.

While touring Latin America, Vice President Xi Jinping signed a deal to lend $10 billion to Brazil's state-owned oil company Petrobras. China will receive up to 160,000 barrels a day, again over a 20-year period.

The oil deals complement efforts to buy into the Australian mining industry. China's biggest aluminum producer, Chinalco, has submitted a bid of $19.5 billion to buy an 18 percent stake in beleaguered mining company Rio Tinto. Chinese firm Minmetals has offered $1.7 billion for Oz Minerals.

The purchases were a shrewd diplomatic move, pleasing European manufacturers, making a small dent in China's huge trade surpluses and undercutting the U.S. "buy American" drive, a policy that Chinese officials have been quick to criticize.

A major factor, said Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, is that China's acquisitions have been focused on resources that tend to be found outside the U.S.

But if China starts looking at U.S. firms, such as the struggling car industry, it might avoid another Unocal moment. Western economies are in such a weak position that they may not be so selective.


#27
Gabysh

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Degeaba China are rezerve de milioane, daca nu ii foloseste in interesul cetateanului. Lumea moare de foame, la propriu sau emigreaza spre alte state, si China incerca sa-si mareasca rezervele.

China nici nu incerca sa gaseasca o solutie pentru excedentul de forta de munca.

De asta nu am inteles eu tarile bogate si oamenii bogati, Ce fac cu atatea milioane de dolari ? Vor sa mai traiasca inca o viata sau sa-i duca pa lumea cealalta ?

#28
flaviand

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Comentarii pe tema ultimelor declaratii ale chinezilor: http://www.chrismart...5#comment-24138

Quote

You may not see the threat in Wen`s remarks if you don“t consider asian mentality.  

“We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,”

To speak that out so publicly as he did in itself is a very blunt statement from their point of view.

For them, the americans already lost their face `cause not only did the chinese lent you lots and lots of money, but also Ms Clinton herself came over only to beg for more! That is not a good thing, because now the chinese are starting to play their cards.

Quote

I agree with Michael when he says,

     "You may not see the threat in Wen`s remarks if you don“t consider asian mentality."

I say this as I post from my island "hideout" in the Yellow Sea using an errant wireless signal that I get once in a while...

For the Chinese to say what they've been saying, given the Asian tradition of "beating around the bush" until someone is so embarrassed that they do the right thing or until you just have to step on them, I'd say America has been warned...

Quote

Seconded. This is very bad given Chinese culture.

It is especially worrying considering the recent aggression on US ships. First the Chinese flew a bomber within a few hundred feet above the deck of a US ship. They blamed it on a rogue pilot ignoring orders. Second they had several vessels surround and block another US ship. The Chinese pulled down their pants and the US ship had to retreat. Again they said it was unintentional.

Chinese citizens rarely act autonomously. Chinese military never act autonomously.

They have a huge advantage over the States. Scary times.

Quote

I have several friends, who are 1.5 generation Chinese Americans.  I would agree that it takes a lot for Chinese to make this kind of public statement.


#29
nmg

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 flaviand, on Mar 17 2009, 01:09, said:

Comentarii pe tema ultimelor declaratii ale chinezilor: http://www.chrismart...5#comment-24138

Da, nici eu n-am luat in calcul diferenta de mentalitate intre asiatici si restul lumii ... Cred ca au dreptate.

In ceea ce priveste  

Quote

Among the most lucrative: an agreement reached with Russia, in which China will lend $25 billion to Russian oil giant Rosneft and oil pipeline company Transneft. In return, according to Russian news reports, China will receive 300,000 barrels of crude a day for the next 20 years at a rate of about $20 a barrel less than half the current price of $45.

Mi se pare aproape incredibil si foarte greu de crezut. Adica sa cumperi petrol pentru 20 de ani la aproape jumatate din pretul actual ?? Cand pretul va incepe sa creasca din nou ?? Cat de disperat trebuie sa fii sa vinzi in asa conditii ?

Cred ca ceva este in neregula cu stirea asta, probabil este doar jumate din adevar, ca in alte multe cazuri.

Edited by nmg, 17 March 2009 - 08:09.


#30
don_dannielo

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 nmg, on Mar 17 2009, 08:02, said:

Mi se pare aproape incredibil si foarte greu de crezut. Adica sa cumperi petrol pentru 20 de ani la aproape jumatate din pretul actual ?? Cand pretul va incepe sa creasca din nou ?? Cat de disperat trebuie sa fii sa vinzi in asa conditii ?
La fel de disperati ca si aia care cumpara.

Unii si-au dat seama in sfarsit ca stransul de bani la ciorap fara investitii e o strategie falimentara, pentru ca banii nu ma au echivalent in aur. Iar ceilalti probabil se apropie de o crunta saracie si poate o revolta (pentru ca Putin n-a prevazut o asemenea criza in planul lui dictatorial), fac si ei ce mai pot.

Nu vad cum poate influenta mentalitatea chinezilor economia de piata. Traim in Matrix? Pot sa se concentreze mental cat vor, daca nu pot produce si vinde ceea ce produc (contrar opiniei generale, China nu face acest lucru), tot degeaba.

Edited by don_dannielo, 17 March 2009 - 11:23.


#31
nmg

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Cred ca ai inteles gresit chestia cu mentalitatea. Nu e vorba de mentalitatea chinezilor privind economia de piata ci de mentalitatea asiaticilor in general.

#32
don_dannielo

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Adica se apropie un razboi sau ce?

#33
nmg

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 don_dannielo, on Mar 17 2009, 12:07, said:

Adica se apropie un razboi sau ce?

De unde ai scos-o ? Discutia a pornit de la declaratiile si actiunile chinezilor si cum ar trebui ele interpretate avand in vedere diferentele de mentalitate dintre asiatici si europeni (ca sa zic asa):

Quote

“We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States,”
To speak that out so publicly as he did in itself is a very blunt statement from their point of view.
....


#34
buteliearagaz

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 nmg, on Mar 17 2009, 08:02, said:

Da, nici eu n-am luat in calcul diferenta de mentalitate intre asiatici si restul lumii ... Cred ca au dreptate.

In ceea ce priveste  

Mi se pare aproape incredibil si foarte greu de crezut. Adica sa cumperi petrol pentru 20 de ani la aproape jumatate din pretul actual ?? Cand pretul va incepe sa creasca din nou ?? Cat de disperat trebuie sa fii sa vinzi in asa conditii ?

Cred ca ceva este in neregula cu stirea asta, probabil este doar jumate din adevar, ca in alte multe cazuri.
Rusii sunt cam la fundul sacului si in curand vor avea soarta Argentinei pentru ca aceasta criza mai dureaza cativa ani .
Rezervele valutare cu care se lauda rusii trebuie pastrate pentru a sustine rubla .

#35
flaviand

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Povestea e simpla: chinezii au bani in exces iar rusii nu sunt chiar asa prosti cum ii cred unii... ;)

Oricum traditional China a fost mai apropiata ca gandire de Rusia prin sistemul comunist si mai apropiata de US ca sistem economic. Iar acum ca economic US o ia la vale, e logic sa intareasca relatiile cu Rusia si pe aceasta latura.

#36
dracon

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 flaviand, on Mar 18 2009, 09:27, said:

Povestea e simpla: chinezii au bani in exces iar rusii nu sunt chiar asa prosti cum ii cred unii... ;)
Yep.

Vezi: China efectueaza achizitii pe toate continentele, profitand de criza si de preturile mici ale activelor, Hotnews, 18.03.2009

Quote

Povestea e simpla: chinezii au bani in exces iar rusii nu sunt chiar asa prosti cum ii cred unii... ;)
Yep.

Vezi: Dupa Kazahstan, Rusia cere infiintarea unei monede globale care sa inlocuiasca dolarul, Hotnews, 18.03.2009

Edited by dracon, 18 March 2009 - 12:54.


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