Statul Islamic

ThinkAbout, on 08 octombrie 2014 - 16:45, said:

o mai mare sustinere a rebelilor si garantia daramarii lui asaad. pe langa problema secesionsita kurda locala, yadayada.

remembernazdaq, on 08 octombrie 2014 - 16:46, said:

US s-a pronuntat demult in problema asta, ba a si aprobat proiectul legislativ deci aici nu sunt probleme.
Cu exercitarea dreptului la autodeterminare de catre kurzi, e clar ca aici sunt dispute serioase.

Edited by ThinkAbout, 08 October 2014 - 16:50.

Iran op-ed asks Soleimani to defend Kobani

One op-ed by conservative Iranian news website Khabar Online has asked Soleimani to help defend Kobani. As commander of the Quds Force, Soleimani has been heavily involved in advising the Iraqi forces and militias since IS took over large parts of western Iraq this summer. Pictures of him alongside Iraqi and Iraqi Kurdish forces in various Iraqi cities have become common as Iran has not hidden its presence there.
The op-ed cited reports that Soleimani and Iran were involved in liberating the Iraqi town of Amerli and had supplied arms to Kurdish forces in Iraq to fight IS. It read that “the weight of resistance in the region” was on his shoulders.
The op-ed continued, “But I have one urgent request. These days, bad news is coming from the city of Kobani. Everyone knows if the siege on Amerli was not broken what would have happened to the people of Amerli. Now everyone is assuming that will happen to Kobani.” The article said that the United States and its coalition were not taking a serious stance toward IS in Kobani and asked Soleimani “to prevent a genocide” in that city.

Read more: http://www.al-monito...r#ixzz3FZCV6jLv

si ceea ce nu arata Iranul
adica reprimarea protestelor kurzilor iranieni in solidaritate cu kobane
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se intampla in Turcia
fortele de mentinere a ordinii publice au menirea lor, dar civilii cu bate si topare ce menire au?

conform cu cei care au postat fotografia sunt civili  chemati sa bata kurzii care protestau pasnic
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morala
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The Pentagon on Tuesday said that airstrikes alone won't be enough to halt ISIS' advances on the crucial Syrian town of Kobani, which lies along the border between Syria and Turkey. It also admitted a central flaw in its plan: It has no effective partners on the ground at this point — and it won't, perhaps, for more than a year.
"We don’t have a willing, capable, effective partner on the ground inside Syria. It’s just a fact. I can’t change that," Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby told reporters Wednesday. The administration has been providing limited assistance to various rebel groups on the ground, but has not coordinated airstrikes with them.
As for Kobani, Kirby said that people "need to understand we need a little strategic patience here. This group is not going to go away tomorrow, and Kobani may fall. We can't predict whether it will or it won't."
"There will be other towns that they will threaten, and there will be other towns that they will take," he added. "It is going to take a little bit of time."

Kobane

Este un oras plin de semnificatii, un simbol al rezistentei civile impotriva lui IS, un al pas in campania de cuceriri a statului islamic dar si un simbol care scoate in relief incapacitatea comunitatii internationale de a opri inaintarea jihadistilor

Interesele statelor occidentale si a partenerilor regionali in coalitie sunt diferite

Orasul kurzilor syrieni a devenit cunoscut in scurt timp.In cazul in care o sa cada in mainile IS, consecintele sunt dramatice.

Pentru Turcia, pentru ca ar deschide calea tulburarilor interne, care se pot transforma in ciocniri violente imbracand chiar forma legala a luptei unui popor [cel kurd] pentru auto-determinare.
Privit din perspectiva istorica, ar fi o reeditare a decolonizarii ce s-a petrecut in secolul 20 si care a condus in final la dezintegrarea unor fabrici sociale.

O sa fie interesant de apreciat, ce o sa faca turcia in cazul in care kurzii chiar aleg calea luptei armate pentru autodeterminare avand in vedere ca este stat membru NATO.

Pentru IS, orice conflict in spatiul turc este un castig, avand in vedere ca este o organizatie ce a rezultat din acest tip de diferende.

Pentru occidentali degradarea si exterminarea IS-ului este intradevar o prioritate, insa stragia lipseste cu desavarsire, atat cea politica cat si cea militara.
Occidentalii sunt nevoiti sa navigheze printre interese pentru a pastra in coalitie statele arabe partenere si Turcia.

Statele arabe sunt interesate sa stopeze IS-ul dar totodata urmaresc rasturnarea lui Assad de la putere, transarea dosarului nuclear iranian si redefinirea sferelor de influenta in lumea araba.

Concret, sfarsitul hegemoniei iraniene.

Privit din acest punct de vedere tabloul evidentiaza 2 forte active, IS-ul si kurzii.

Cine reuseste sa sa se foloseasca de oricare din cele doua cumuleaza atuuri importante.

Edited by ThinkAbout, 09 October 2014 - 11:07.

daca reduta kurda kobane pica si turcia nu face nimic in acest sens...nu cred ca turcii se vor mai reconcilia vreodata cu minoritatea lor kurda. vor urma proteste violente, reprimate mai violent (ca asa-s obisnuite ambele parti) iar PKK-ul se va intari. desi decizia de inactivitate a turciei pare avantajoasa nationalist pe moment, a la long tocmai nationalismul sau are de pierdut.
in fine...iata situatia de la granita cu turcia rezumata intr-un desen:
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si un articol despre imposibilele dorinte turcesti si impotenta jinn-ului din lampa lui erdogan.
Turkey’s Dangerous Bet on Syria http://www.nytimes.c...d=tw-share&_r=0

Quote

Edited by remembernazdaq, 09 October 2014 - 21:35.

vorbind de kurzi, mi-am amintit ca ei au fost principalii colaboratori ai turcilor in genocidul armenesc (cel cu mai multe etape).
istoria se intoarce si te plezneste in fata cand nici nu te astepti.
in memoriam:
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imaginile sunt terifiante.

ThinkAbout, on 09 octombrie 2014 - 22:30, said:

asa-i, din pacate. daca turcii isi imagineaza ca lumea va uita asta si ca vor scapa cu simpla negare...se inseala amarnic.

2 kurzi arestati in Iran
Aso Rostami si Ali Nori

in timpul protestelor de azi

[ https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/10509578_682938091814097_8581348090454064792_n.jpg?oh=e3df60e9e1e09910ac64ee5974791de1&oe=54C327A6&__gda__=1422649152_838429756a7f518bf6ef15411180ea93 - Pentru incarcare in pagina (embed) Click aici ]

remembernazdaq, on 09 octombrie 2014 - 22:32, said:

stiu ca francezii au cerut la un moment dat judecarea istorica a genocidului armenilor insa nu am mai auzit nimic de atunci.
turcii isi imagineaza multe, inclusiv un nou imperiu otoman

Edited by ThinkAbout, 09 October 2014 - 22:34.

iranul are o traditie in a sufoca prin orice mijloace protestele kurde.
prima oara cu safavizii, in 1500 si 1600, apoi in 1922, 1930, 1946.
situatia s-a inrautatit dupa ce khamenei a luat puterea si a renumit iranul republica islamica: 1979, 1996, 1999, 1993, 2005, 2008-pana in prezent.
mai mult aici: http://en.wikipedia....anian_Kurdistan
cam atat despre toleranta islamului fata de minoritati, fie ele si etnice...

ThinkAbout, on 09 octombrie 2014 - 22:33, said:

ar fi bine daca si-ar imagina cat de relaxat sta vladimir putin privind cum erdogan si al sau partid islamist distrug puterea proprie ce deranja rusia si lasa iranul, aliatul rusesc in plina ascensiune zonala...

Edited by remembernazdaq, 09 October 2014 - 22:45.

remembernazdaq, on 09 octombrie 2014 - 22:42, said:

au inteles gresit art 5 al pactului NATO se pare
insa drama este ca acum izlamizarea aia a lui Erdogan produce efecte asupra unei intregi aliante.occidentale.

Din interviul cu un comandant al FSA-ului partea asta este interesanta

NOW: We know why Turkey isn't allowing arms to the PYD, but why aren't they giving you any?

Abu Saif: At the end of the day, any weapons that came to us would benefit the PYD, and the Turks don't want that.  I am struggling for words right now. When we were in Raqqa, we used to receive assistance from Turkey. These Kurds are also Syrians, and at the end of the day, they are fighting for their land, their women, their children. It’s not as if we are committing a crime here. The international community must come to our aid.

https://now.mmedia.m...de-kobane-kurds

Edited by ThinkAbout, 09 October 2014 - 22:59.

Neconfirmat inca oficial:IS a atacat Ras al Ayn
Acolo este armata turca, avand in vedere ca granita dintre Syria si Turcia trece prin oras.

The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has suggested that the government should renew a parliamentary mandate authorizing the Turkish army to mobilize in neighboring Syria by clarifying that it would solely aim to save the border town of Kobane from jihadists. The current mandate gives broad and vague authority for cross border operations into Iraq and Syria.

Let’s limit our army’s ground operation to the target of rescuing Kobane and driving ISIL [the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant] from there. Let’s definitely drop from the motion the article about allowing foreign soldiers to be stationed in our country. Instead, let’s add an expression that states that we could provide cooperation for air strikes,” CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu said at a press conference on Oct. 9.
“Within this framework, as the CHP, we would lend all kinds of support,” he added.
Kılıçdaroğlu’s party voted against a motion adopted on Oct. 2 that gave the government new powers to launch military incursions into Syria and Iraq, and to allow foreign forces to use Turkish territory for possible operations against ISIL.

Iran warns Turkey over military presence in Syria
http://www.presstv.i...a-intervention/

Edited by ThinkAbout, 10 October 2014 - 00:42.

Concluziile ce se pot extrage din toate declaratiile, luarile de pozitie din aceste zile:Cum sa [nu] conduci o coalitie

Urmarind declaratiile presedintelui Obama am observat ca-i place sa faca mentiuni asupra statelor coparticipante la coalitia ad hoc anti IS.

Mi-ar place sa vad totusi si mentiuni privind managementul acestei coalitii ca sa putem aprecia eficienta

Nu de alta dar se ridica intrebarea, daca Kobane cade in mainile Is-ului cine este de vina?

coalitia, Turcia, ambele?

ca sa putem aborda aceasta intrebare trebuie sa studiem inca o data prioritatile pe care fiecare membru al coalitiei ad hoc si le-a stabilit.

am facut-o deja intr-o postare astazi si am demonstrat ca sunt contrare sub multe aspecte

Singurul stat care poate sa le aduca la un numitor comun este US in calitate de superputere, lider incontestabil al coalitiei ad hoc

Este simplu, se rezolva printr-o declaratie publica prin care Obama garanteaza pe Erdogan ca daca trece cu armata la actiune impotriva teroristilor de la IS, toata forta armata de care dispune US si ceilalti parteneri ai NATO garanteaza ca Turcia nu o sa fie sanctionata de catre Rusia [pentru incalcarea suveranitatii Syriei].

Obama ezita iar Erdogan a inteles acest lucru, inaintand propria lui propunere despre cum ar trebui sa arate prioritatile coalitiei.

Si ne intoarcem de unde am plecat

Edited by ThinkAbout, 10 October 2014 - 01:13.