Predictii 2009 ?

Preface............................1
The big picture .............3
The financial sector .......13
The markets..................27
Three key countries......48
A closing thought .........59
About us .....................61
About M:Communications...................62

Forecasting with both eyes fixed on the rear-view mirror is a
hazardous business, but there is no other way. Divinely inspired
oracles aren?t a common feature of the modern world; studying
animal entrails in the office violates health and safety
standards. So financial seers can look backwards only.
The study of past forecasts promotes humility. True,
breakingviews has consistently been more sceptical than many
about the period of apparent prosperity that has given way to
the current financial crisis. In 2005, we predicted that within a
few years central bankers would be asking ?just how
Greenspan got away with arguing that asset prices were not the
business of central banks?. In 2006, the word ?bubble?
appeared in 90 stories ? mostly attached to something like ?will
pop soon?.
But while we were pessimistic, we were nowhere near gloomy
enough about 2008. Our predictions book for the year got some
things right. We said that private equity ?like the Chinese
Zodiac, goes from pig to rat?, and that the UK economy was in a
precarious position. But the impending failures and government
rescues ? Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and
much of the US and UK banking system ? went unpredicted.
These inadequacies of foresight haven?t deterred us. This book
contains 24 pieces detailing our expectations of the key
developments that lie ahead in 2009, and beyond. It?s not a
happy story. We don?t see an early ? or easy ? conclusion to
the tensions in the financial system. We also fear that bold
programmes by governments could lead to big problems later.

Government bonds look like a bubble. Our best bets are
traditionally defensive: bad-time stocks and gold, the asset for
worst times.

Documentul pare interesant, dar te pune bine pe ganduri, mai ales ca trebuie sa fii foarte visator ca problemele acumulate intr-o perioada destul de lunga se vor rezolva in 1-2 ani...