Brexit - referendumul din UK - 23 Iunie 2016

With opposition on all sides increasingly vocal, May is under the most sustained pressure of her premiership. And Britain is now in a period of intense uncertainty, with no clear precedent for what happens next in the event that the prime minister cannot retain enough support to drive her Brexit plan through.

The British pound, which had strengthened on news of the deal and Cabinet support on Wednesday, dropped again following Raab’s resignation, reflecting increasing concerns the U.K. could crash out of the EU with no deal at all in March 2019 and exact a high economic toll for the U.K.

Let’s talk numbers.

One of the chief obstacles ahead for May if she is going to get her Brexit agreement through could be the House of Commons, where a simple majority of MPs will need to vote for the blueprint for the deal to be given the green light.

The magic number is 320, a majority of the 639 voting MPs in the Commons which excludes suspensions, the Speaker, three Deputy Speakers and seven Sinn Fein MPs who abstain from attending the UK Parliament.

The Parliament website lists 93 MPs who are ministers and would therefore be bound to support Theresa May’s Brexit plans owing to collective responsibility. There are others, such as loyalists to May and the government, who are expected to vote in favour of the deal, along with Brexiteer MPs who may have been spooked by the PM’s message that it was this deal, no deal or no Brexit.

On the other side of the debate, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru have said they are opposed to a deal so this adds 17 to the noes.
The Democratic Unionist Party’s stance on the Brexit deal is uncertain. Arlene Foster has said the Prime Minister is “fully aware of our position and concerns” over Northern Ireland being treated differently to the rest of the UK.

There is division within the Conservative party too, with the European Research Group, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, claiming it has 80 MPs ready to vote against what it sees as May’s capitulation to Brussels. Opponents suggest the number would be whittled down under a concerted offensive of arm-bending by the Tory whips, so it may finally be considerably less.
This means May could need to find up to 100 votes – but perhaps more realistically somewhat less – from elsewhere.

So the prime minister may well need to extend an olive branch to Labour, which also has its own divisions. The question is how many of Jeremy Corbyn’s MPs are prepared to defy him and support the Prime Minister, reasoning that a no-deal Brexit, which they fear could bring about an economic disaster, would be a worse outcome.

May a ajuns la o intelegere cu UE. Guvernu' lu' May, partidu' lu' May, aliatii lu' May si opozitia nu au ajuns la o intelegere cu UE. Opozitia se opune din principiu, iar conservatorii si aliatii se opun fiindca acest tratat este unul de vasalitate. Nimic nu e oficial pana nu decide parlamentu' britanic, iar majoritatea lu' May s-ar putea sa se evapore. Si-apoi tre' sa decida parlamentele celor 27 de state membre UE daca tratatu-i ok sau ba.

Ahahahaha.

The deal is built to make sure European companies, notably German carmakers, don’t lose an important market and don’t need to revamp their supply chains. According to the documents released on Thursday night, business gets a triple guarantee.

First, there’s the transition period until the end of 2020, which can be extended indefinitely and which essentially keeps the U.K. in the EU for all purposes except decision-making.

Second, there’s the backstop to avoid a hard border in Ireland, to which U.K.-EU relations revert if the transition period isn’t extended. It’s almost the same deal as the one Turkey has with the EU, imposing on the U.K. pretty much all the bloc’s goods trade rules plus some 25 pages of “level playing field” regulations that make sure Britain doesn’t try to out-compete its former partners by setting lower environmental, labor, state aid, antitrust and other standards.

Third, there’s the future economic relationship that’s supposed to “build on the single customs territory” between the EU and the U.K. No version of a customs union is dangerous to goods producers.
Brussels’ losses from the deal are limited. Unless the transition period is extended, it stands to lose some 13 billion euros ($14.7 billion) a year in U.K. contributions and save about 7 billion euros a year it’s been investing in the U.K.

Other than that, it’s not so terrible. For example, fishing fleets from EU countries will have less opportunity to fish in U.K. waters (although they probably won’t be kept out entirely). Equal access to U.K. public procurement will be lost to EU firms, although that might be temporary. Europe also stands to lose some of the close law enforcement and security cooperation with the U.K., although new arrangements will almost certainly be made.

There are gains, too. More precarious access for U.K. finance firms to the EU will force them to build strong continental bases. The end of the free movement of people between the EU and U.K. can also benefit Europe. With less opportunity to emigrate, eastern European nations could get a respite from debilitating population outflows. Latvia would like to lose fewer people to the U.K., and so would Poland. Germany, with unemployment at historic lows and a shortage of qualified workers, could benefit if migrants go there instead.

But perhaps the best thing about the deal for the EU is that any member country can look at the Brexit documents and not find a single reason why it might be worth the trouble to quit the bloc. Europe’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has crafted an effective deterrent to copycats.

Am citit cateva articole, dar e un haos total si nu inteleg mai nimic. E un deal final sau temporar? Am observat ca au disparut discutiile despre freedom of movement. A renuntat UE la asta?

Am citit cateva articole, dar e un haos total si nu inteleg mai nimic. E un deal final sau temporar? Am observat ca au disparut discutiile despre freedom of movement. A renuntat UE la asta?

Am citit cateva articole, dar e un haos total si nu inteleg mai nimic. E un deal final sau temporar? Am observat ca au disparut discutiile despre freedom of movement. A renuntat UE la asta?

Am citit cateva articole, dar e un haos total si nu inteleg mai nimic. E un deal final sau temporar? Am observat ca au disparut discutiile despre freedom of movement. A renuntat UE la asta?

Borders

During the transition period, freedom of movement rules apply, meaning EU citizens will be free to live and work in the UK and vice versa.
Once the UK exits transition, it will be able to set its own rules on immigration.
This is why the prime minster claims the UK will be "taking back control" of its borders and that the country will be ending free movement.
But if the transition period continues, so EU citizens will be able to carry on moving to the UK.

La revedere cu freedom of movement 1:05:14 si 1:05:42

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