China vs US

Povestea e simpla: chinezii au bani in exces iar rusii nu sunt chiar asa prosti cum ii cred unii...

In 1999, in topul mondial al bancilor calculat dupa valoarea de piata (capitalizare), se aflau 11 banci americane. Pe primele doua locuri se situau Citigroup si Bank of America in timp ce nici o banca chineza nu se afla printre primele 20. Topul pe 1999 mai jos (click pentru marire)

Dupa 20 de ani, capitalismul se pare ca a capitulat in fata comunismului cu fata umana din moment ce in 2009, topul mondial al bancilor este dominat de China cu 5 banci dintre care 3 se situeaza pe primele trei locuri. Citi si Bank of America au devenit istorie iar din cele 11 banci americane care faceau parte din top in urma cu 20 de ani, au mai ramas 3. In plus, 13 din cele 20 aflate in topul initial au primit ajutoare de stat in valoare totala de 310 miliarde dolari.

Mai jos topul pe 2009.

China and Argentina have made a tentative agreement to swap $10bn (?7bn) worth of their currencies.

The move, which allows both countries to bypass the US dollar, makes it easier for Argentine businesses to buy Chinese imports directly in yuan.

It also gives Argentina hard cash at a time when its finances have been hurt by the global financial crisis.

The deal comes after China suggested that the world should create a new reserve currency to replace the dollar.

The swap is being seen as a sign of China's ambitions in South America.

"I think the U.S. government and the World Bank can consider the possibility of issuing renminbi bonds in the Hong Kong market and the Shanghai market," said Guo Shuqing, the chairman of state-controlled China Construction Bank (CCB), the world's second-biggest bank by market value.

The Chinese have no interest in collapsing the US Treasury market, but if people
think that the Chinese strategy to protect themselves against such an eventuality
is to sit tight, buy more and keep their fingers crossed every thing will work out
fine, then they shouldn’t go out in public alone!

The Chinese have vault loads of intrinsically worthless Treasury Bonds that they
have no doubt used as collateral to buy intrinsically valuable assets. The
Western central bankers in contrast had vault loads of gold that they have loaned
or sold to buy intrinsically worthless interest bearing Government debt!

În cazul de față se constată o creștere bruscă a importurilor chineze de materie primă. Așa s-a ajuns ca în ultimele luni să se importe o cantitate dublă de cărbune față de vârful din ianuarie 2007, o cantitate de oțel cu 50% mai mare decât vârful din iunie 2007 sau o cantitate de cupru cu ~ 30% mai mare decât vârful din martie 2007. Asistăm așadar la stabilirea unor recorduri absolute ale Chinei în ceea ce privește achizițiile de materie primă. Ceva mai "modeste", importurile de petrol abia au atins aproximativ 85% față de vârful din martie 2007.

La Ekaterinburg s-au incheiat summitul Organizatiei de cooperare de la Shanghai (SCO) si cel al tarilor membre BRIC. Rusia a incercat, potrivit presei centrale ruse, sa atraga atentia participantilor cu ideea reformarii sistemului financiar mondial si crearii unei noi valute de rezerva, dar China a reusit sa se impuna ca lider de facto al celor doua blocuri.

Tarile emergente membre ale BRIC (Brazilia, Rusia, India si China) au facut apel marti, in cadrul primului summit al organizatiei, la "diversificarea in continuare" a sistemului monetar international, pentru a contrabalansa influenta dolarului, relateaza AFP.

It is no mystery to other countries how the US remains above the law. Foreigners see a financial system backed by American military bases encircling the globe. The IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organisation and other Washington surrogates are seen as vestiges of a lost American empire no longer able to rule by economic strength, left only with military domination. They see this hegemony cannot continue without adequate revenues and are attempting to hasten the bankruptcy of the US financial-military world order. If China, Russia and their allies have their way, the US will no longer live off the savings of others, nor have the money for unlimited military spending.

US officials wanted to attend Yekaterinburg as observers. They were told no. It is a word that Americans will hear much more in the future.

The single best way to do this of course is to use your US dollars to buy hard assets. This looks "normal". It isn't nearly as obvious as "diversifying" your currency reserves. China is doing exactly that. The "China recovery" story is nothing of the sort. The Chinese demand for commodities is not a function of economic growth but rather a function of hoarding. There are Consequences to this Phantom Commodity Bull Market which will become apparent soon enough.

The complaint, filed with the World Trade Organization by the European Union as well as the U.S., accused China of restricting exports of various materials including zinc and coke, a key component for making steel, by establishing export quotas, duties and other restraints.

"What the U.S. and Europe are doing is groundless," Zhou Shijian, an expert on Chinese-U.S. trade relations, told the Global Times, a prominent state-owned Chinese newspaper, after the complaint was filed. "It's natural for a country to try to protect its resources and environment."

The Obama administration tried to press the raw-material issue directly with China, as the Bush administration did, but quickly opted to file a complaint when it became clear that would not work, Vargo said.

Ensuring that countries do not impose unfair trade practices, Kirk said, is crucial as the U.S. tries to emerge from a severe recession.

"Now more than ever, trade is essential to keeping America's economy afloat," he said.

"Hi George,

    Thanks for your posts. As always, very useful.

    Just a general "boots on the ground" view of the Housing report that I thought you may find insightful.

    A very good friend of mine (used to be a spouse, but that is another story) is the ultimate "boots on the ground" reference for housing, real estate, building and so forth. He's a surveyor. The first guy to hit raw land, the first guy you call when you are considering building something, the last guy that gets called before the deal closes, and involved at every point in between.

    And here's what he says; "Nothing. No work. Nothing. We had nothing going back six months, and we have nothing for the spring - AT ALL - which is unheard of, even going back to the early 80's when things really sucked. But nothing has sucked as much as this."

    He's about to be laid off. On Friday. The first lay off he's ever faced in more than 30 years of being the very best surveyor, with the very best firm in the region. In the last two years, his company has let go of six crews (3 men each.) His crew is the last to go, and they have only lasted this long b/c they were able to bill hours to cover their own salaries. But the last 3 months, jobs have been pulled (and I am talking jobs with broken ground) and now there is nothing - NOTHING - in the pipeline for the spring (which is their boom season.)

    I have known this man a long time, and I have never seen him not have an angle. He's completely out of angles now, and doesn't know what to make of this. It's completely new territory.

    And just for reference, this isn't Detroit or California. This is the Research Triangle region of North Carolina - Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill - an area that by all reports is "still strong". If this is strong, God Help the rest of the nation.

    I lost my job at a software company in September (have never been unemployed before except willfully) and have not been able to get so much as returned phone call. No interviews. The start-up I worked for (which is funded, BTW) has let go of 7 of its 19 employees since they shed me. All customer support, marketing, and business development. And they have not signed a single deal since May of 2009.

    Most of my friends - all in their early forties - have faced similar fates. We were higher income earners and top performers in High Tech, but now we're now no longer essential. I have friends who have kids in private schools, mortgages, and are still paying college loans for advanced degrees (MBAs mostly) who are now essentially unemployable. I guess I was lucky b/c I saw this coming and realigned my lifestyle, paid off my debt, and have been spared the really scary stuff. I also have family so I will not be homeless, no matter what. ... But it's hard watching so many good people suffer with no light at the end of the tunnel. We bought into a lie, and now the truth is emerging. It's a hard reckoning.

    I survived the "downturn" of 2000/2001. This is something different. This is a paradigm shift. And we're just guinea pigs, waiting to see what the next "test" is.

    It's bad out here. Wish I was in East Texas with a bit of paid-for dirt and a collection of like-minded friends.